Population Projection - Decreasing Rate of Growth

Premise that, to the extent that the city grows, growth rate it becomes smaller.

The population tends asymptotically to a value of saturation.

Parameters can be also estimated by regression not linear

• First Census
  • Year of the First Census - Year of the First Census
    (FirstCensusYear)
  • Population at First Census - Population at First Census
    (FirstCensusPop)
• Intermediate Census
  • Intermediate Population - estimated population between the first and second census
    (MidCensusPop)
• Second Census
  • Year of the Second Census - Year of the Second Census
    (SecondCensusYear)
  • Population at the Second Census - Population at the Second Census
    (SecondCensusPop)
• Start of the Project
  • Initial Year - Year the project started operating
    (StartYear)
  • Initial Population - Population at the beginning of the project
    (StartPop)
• Population Projection
  • Year of Projection - Year of End of Project
    (EndYear)
  • Kd - auxiliary coefficient
    Kd = Math.Log((kPop-secondCensusPop) / (kPop - FirstCensusPop)) / (SecondCensusYear - FirstCensusYear)
  • Final Population - Population at the end of the project
    (EndPop) EndPop = StartPop + (kPop - StartPop) * (1 - Math.Exp(-Kd * (EndYear - StartYear)))
  • Growth Rate - growth rate of the curve
    (kPop)
    kPop = (2 * FirstCensusPop * MidCensusPop * SecondCensusPop - (MidCensusPop^2) * (FirstCensusPop + SecondCensusPop)) /
    (FirstCensusPop * SecondCensusPop - MidCensusPop ^ 2)