Population Projection - Arithmetic Projection

Population growth at a constant rate. Method used for shorter-term estimates.

Curve fitting can also be done by regression analysis.

• First Census
  • Year of the First Census - Year of the First Census
    (FirstCensusYear)
  • Population at First Census - Population at First Census
    (FirstCensusPop)
• Second Census
  • Year of the Second Census - Year of the Second Census
    (SecondCensusYear)
  • Population at the Second Census - Population at the Second Census
    (SecondCensusPop)
• Start of the Project
  • Initial Year - Year the project started operating
    (StartYear)
  • Initial Population - Population at the beginning of the project
    (StartPop)
• Population Projection
  • Year of Projection - Year of End of Project
    (EndYear)
  • Final Population - Population at the end of the project
    (EndPop)
    EndPop = StartPop + kPop * (EndYear - StartYear)
  • Growth Rate - growth rate of the curve
    (kPop)
    kPop = (SecondCensusPop - FirstCensusPop) / (SecondCensusYear - FirstCensusYear)